Wednesday, June 20, 2007

the makings of... Ian Kennedy

Behind Phillp Hughes and Joba Chamberlin, the Yankees top pitching prospect might just be Ian Kennedy. The Yankees signed Kennedy after his junior year of college as the 21st overall pick in the 2006 draft. There was skepticism around baseball regarding Ian's upside. Baseball America reported "Kennedy wasn't a consensus first-round talent due to his smallish (6-foot-1, 195 pounds) frame, which offers little projection, and because his performance fell in his junior season." This apparently was not an issue for the Yanks though, who went above and beyond entertaining this Boras client by paying well over the MLB suggested signing bonus for that slot. The actual bonus wound up being about $2.25 million dollars whereas the suggested bonus for his slot (21) was estimated to be $1.45 million dollars. The signing bonuses of both the no 20 and no 22 picks were supplied by Baseball America, both are considerably lower than Kennedy's. "The Twins signed No. 20 pick Chris Parmelee, a high school outfielder, for $1.5 million, while No. 22 pick Colton Willems, a prep righthander drafted by the Nationals, signed for $1.425 million." This created controversy throughout baseball, especially in smaller markets. But I am happy to say that I think everybody is beyond that. Just one year later, Ian is making a new name for himself by tearing it up everywhere he goes, currently appearing at Double A Trenton.

Kennedy comes from Huntington Beach, California and attended high school at La Quinta. In his Junior year, he won 13 games and led his county with a 0.38 ERA. He allowed just five earned runs over 90 2/3 innings and recorded 168 strikeouts.

After high school, Ian moved on to the very well respected baseball program at USC, where he made an immediate impact. As a freshman he was the team's no 1 starter, and he certainly played the role. 92 2/3 IP, 7-2, 2.91ERA, 86H, 30ER, 31BB and 120K's. What appeals the most to me here is the 4/1 K/BB ratio and the 1.27WHIP. Not bad for a 19 year old kid who most likely hadn't had much experience facing lineups stacked with All-Americans, which is usually the case in the PAC 10. These accomplishments earned him All-Pac-10 and Baseball America Mid season Freshman All-American honors. His first ever collegiate start was February 23, 2004 against Long Beach State who had their ace pitcher on the mound, a 21 year old kid by the name of Jered Weaver. Weaver is currently a regular in the LA Angels starting rotation.

Ian's 2005 sophomore year proved to be another banner year. Again he would represent the pitching staff as their no 1 starter. By the time the season was over Ian would be named to the Baseball America All America first team, and earn PAC-10 Conference Pitcher of the Year honors. He went 12-2 with a 2.54 ERA. 117 IP, 85 H, 33 ER, 38 BB, 158 SO, equaling a very healthy 12.15 K/9 innings. On April 9th, in one of his best outings, Ian shutout UCLA, allowing just 3 hits, and striking out 15.

2006 turned out to be a lack-luster year for Kennedy. He would be named USC's no 1 starter for a third consecutive term, but struggled after starting the year 3-0. After all was said and done, his numbers looked like this: 5-7, 3.90 ERA, 101 2/3 IP, 100 H, 44 ER, 36 BB, 102 SO. His K/9 ratio would fall about 3 runs to a still respectable, not nearly as dominating 9.07 K/9. On Feb 17th, Ian would get his 300th strikeout, finishing the year, and his college career with 380 K's. Ian would leave school with the second highest K/9 ratio in USC history, second on to the once phenom, Mark Prior. Prior's 11.52 K/9 edging out Ian's 10.99 K/9.

Ian would also pitch for the Team USA Baseball National Team in 2004 and again in 2005 as well as the USA Junior National team in 2003. In 2005 Kennedy went 4-1 with a 2.89 ERA for Team USA, striking out 35 batters in 28 innings. In five starts, he allowed nine runs on just 11 hits and 10 walks, mesmerizing opponents to a .118 average. He tossed seven no-hit innings against Chinese Taipei on July 15 in Taiwan, striking out nine, walking two, and hitting a batter in a 1-0 victory.


Ian made his professional debut with the Class-A Staten Island Yankees of the New York-Penn League late in 2006. Represented by Scott Boras, negotiations took time and Ian wound up getting just 2.2 innings of work with the Yankee affiliate club in 2006. Prior to 2007, Baseball America ranked Kennedy as the no 5 prospect in the Yankees organization. I have to assume he's climbing that ladder as we speak.

High Class A Tampa would be Ian's first home in 2007. His first start would come on April 6th against Lakeland, the Tigers Class A affiliate. The first 3 Flying Tigers were William Rhymes, Justin Justice and Cameron Maybin. All 3 batters struck out swinging. Talk about announcing your presence with authority! He would continue to pitch well over 5 innings, striking out 8, and allowing just one run, a home run to Michael Hernandez to lead-off the 2nd inning. That home run was one of just two hits surrendered by Ian all night. Although he pitched very well, he would be relieved while the game was still tied 1-1, missing out on getting his 1st ever professional win.

His next start would come 5 days later in the second game of a double-header against the Clearwater Threshers, an affiliate club of the Phillies. Minor League double-headers consist of two seven inning games played back to back. This game looked like a lock for him to get his first win. He would face the minimum twelve batters through four innings. Clearwater managed a hit and a walk, but both base runners were eventually caught stealing. However, the Threshers' pitchers were having there way with Yankee hitters as well. Zac Stott traded zeros with Ian for 3 innings, and Derek Griffith would pitch a scoreless fourth for Clearwater. In the top of the 5th, Tampa would manage two, 2 out walks from Timothy O'Brien and Mario Holmann but were unable to score the games first run. Ian came out again to pitch the bottom of the 5th and immediately retired Jeremy Slayden on a fly ball to centerfielder Colin Curtis. The next batter, Clay Harris hit a solo home run, a run that unfortunately would eventually prove to be the deciding factor. Harris, an unlikely hero, is currently batting .213 and wouldn't hit another home-run till June 4th. After that 6 inning, 3 hit, 1 run, 4 strikeout performance and you'll still find Kennedy's name in the box score as the losing pitcher. His first ever professional loss, and his only loss in the 11 games he would pitch in at Class A Tampa. How sick is that!?

Well, we know that he pitched very well in his first 2 games, 11 IP, 2 ER, 12K. We know that he has an 0-1 record, and we know that he would appear 9 more times for Tampa and not lose a game. So when exactly did he get his all deserving first ever professional win? Actually it would come in his next appearance, but probably not how anybody would've expected. It didn't come on a complete game shutout. As a matter of fact, Ian didn't even start the game. He pitched 3 scoreless innings of relief and was credited with the victory in a win over the Clearwater Threshers. In total, over the 11 games he would pitch for Class A Tampa, Ian Kennedy compiled phenomenal numbers and was awarded a promotion to Double A Trenton in early June. As he said good-bye to Tampa, his totals were as follows: 6-1, 1.29 ERA, 11 G, 10 GS, 1 CG, 63.0 IP, 39 H, 9 R, 9 ER, 2 HR, 22 BB, 72 K, and a .183 Opponent Avg.

June 5th, against the Binghamton Mets, Ian made his debut the Trenton Thunder, and recorded his first Double A win. He's had 4 starts so far with Trenton, the first would be the toughest. Even though he won, Ian pitched 5 innings allowing 4 runs on 6 hits. However, Trenton put up a crooked number in the 5th scoring 9 runs and securing the victory, easing the kid's transition to his new environment.

His next outing came on June 10th against the AA Reading Phillies. What Ian gave his teammates in return for bailing him out his last outing was a stellar performance. 0 runs over 6 innings, striking out 8 and allowing a measly 3 scattered hits. Only once did he allow a runner to get past second base and he struck out the first batter of an inning 3 out of the 6 innings he pitched. Trenton managed a 3 run lead by the time Ian was relieved, and that would be more than needed as they went on to win 4-1 improving his record to 2-0 with the club.

He faced Reading for a second time 6 days later and again pitched very well earning the win. Over 5 innings he allowed just 4 hits and 2 earned runs while striking out a 9 Phillies, topping his total of 8 in 6 IP during there previous meeting.

Ian pitched again 2 day's ago against the Akron Aero's, AA affiliate of the Cleveland Indians. Ian picked up his first Double A loss in a very disappointing performance. Disappointing not because he pitched poorly, but because Trenton's offense, who managed 10 hits and 5 walks, couldn't get a run across the plate in the 2-0 loss. In fact Ian had another excellent outing. His strikeouts were down, just 3, but the Aero's could only hit him for one run in 5 innings. Over 21 innings in Double A so far, he's currently 3-1 with a 3.00 ERA, 16 H, 7 ER, 6 BB, and 26 K's.

Quite a showing so far in his early career. His total numbers between Class A Tampa and AA Trenton are as follows: 9-2, 1.71 ERA, 15 G, 14 GS, 1 CG, 84.0 IP, 55 H, 16 R, 16 ER, 3 HR, 28 BB, 98 K, .190 Opponent Avg, 10.5 K/9 and 4.45 strikeout to walk ratio. Very healthy numbers for a kid who just a year ago was suspected of hiding an injury when he had that mediocre junior year at USC before he was drafted.

Now that we know what Ian has done, how about what he throws. According to MVN.com writer EJ Fagan, "Kennedy throws his fastball between 88-92 mph, although he’s touched 94 on good days. He has recently learned a 2-seamer, which sits around 89 mph and has been effective when he uses it. His best secondary pitch is the changeup, a plus offering that he particularly outstanding command of. He has two breaking pitches: a curveball and a slider. The curve is the better pitch, but both are very good. He mostly uses the slider to give hitters another look at a different speed. Kennedy has excellent command of all his pitches, except for the 2-seamer, which he has been throwing for less than a year. He’s a very savvy pitcher, setting up hitters and playing to their weaknesses. Kennedy earned a lot of praise for his mechanics before the draft. He doesn’t throw with maximum effort, which is what enables his excellent command. Kennedy is capable of throwing at 94 mph, but he’s most effective at 90-92."

Ian has drawn comparison's mostly to Mike Mussina. It may not appear like he has as high an upside as the big, hard throwing Joba Chamberlin, but don't sleep on the kid. His very good showing in stats such as K/9, strikeout to walks, and HR allowed project very well to future performance.

I am very excited as a whole with the new resurgence of Yankee pitching prospects. In addition to Hughes, Chamberlin and Kennedy, there is a plethora of young talent hungry to get that forever changing 5th spot to prove what they can do. I believe we are starting to get our first glimpse at the squad that will eventually lead us in to new Yankee Stadium and what should amount to a new dynasty!

All stats from usctrojans.cstv.com and minorleaguebaseball.com.

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